WASHINGTON, D.C. --- Florida's population growth rate dropped by more than one-third last year, according to new numbers released by the U.S. Census Bureau. MiamiHerald.com posts an Associated Press story with the details:
According to figures released Thursday, the state's population increased by 1.1 percent to 18.3 million. Over the previous 12-month period, the growth rate was 1.8 percent.
Florida Dept. of Community Affairs Secretary Tom Pelham may have found a way to convince Fla. legislators that Republican-led 'property tax reform' and similarly ineffectual scams now carry a potentially severe penalty clause---in the form of the Hometown Democracy movement.
In an unsigned editorial on Sunday, Tallahassee.com cited the class-size amendment, approved by a healthy margin five years ago despite widespread and well-founded claims that it would lead to things like record-high school impact fees that thwart affordable housing efforts.
Citizens for so long had felt misled, bamboozled and betrayed by state and local officials about their so-called "commitment to excellence" in education that they simply didn't believe the rhetoric anymore.
Florida's economic future is threatened by a hulking 'citizen amendment' petition that would elevate NIMBY from cult status to supreme law of the land, requiring local voter approval of all future land use changes. Business groups, developers, home builders, local government leaders and even 1000 Friends of Florida are apoplectic over the initiative's potential passage. Take 1000 Friends out of that equation and it might be the best thing to be said for the amendment itself.
Enter Tom Pelham, widely respected DCA secretary whose expertise in planning and land-use law has earned him a national rep.
Political adviser isn't on his resume, but the DCA chief's advice to politicians on Wednesday was bankable.
In essence, he told members of the Senate Community Affairs Committee that if elected officials throughout the state don't start doing what they say about managing growth more smartly, angry voters will take matters into their own hands again.
Apparently, Aaron Deslatte at OrlandoSentinel.com was the only mainstream press outlet to report Pelham's presentation to the Senate Community Affairs Committee on Wednesday.
Mr. Pelham's alternative, as reported by the Orlando Sentinel on Thursday, is a Citizens' Planning Bill of Rights that would require supermajority votes before local governments could approve comprehensive-plan revisions. He also would reduce the frequency of growth-map changes.
More importantly, in our opinion, are changes suggested by Mr. Pelham that would cut down on state regulation of developments that provide affordable housing, thus creating economic incentives for developers to go that route. He also wants to see more efforts to rein in sprawl, arguably the biggest enemy facing the environment, commuters and Florida's agricultural interests.
NEW YORK, N.Y. ---Yale Economic Review recently emailed a preview of its Winter 2008 volume that cites an article slugged, Greenspan 'made a mess' and U.S. Risks Recession - Renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz says Greenspan couldn't keep his house(- ing market) clean...
YER's link doesn't work, but I found a Nov. 17 Bloomberg News report at ChicagoTribune.com that catches the gist of the Nobel-winning former World Bank senior VP and chief economist-turned-Columbia University professor's brief on the matter:
"I'm very pessimistic," Stiglitz said in an interview Friday. "Alan Greenspan really made a mess of all this. He pushed out too much liquidity at the wrong time. He supported the tax cut in 2001, which is the beginning of these problems. He encouraged people to take out variable-rate mortgages."
Stiglitz warned of a 50 percent chance of a recession in the U.S. and predicted that growth in 2008 will certainly slow to less than half of its three percent potential.
Greenspan responded:
The U.S. home-price surge resulted mainly from the "dramatic" drop in rates on long-term fixed-rate mortgages, which itself resulted from the broader decline in long-term interest rates, Greenspan said. More than two dozen countries have experienced similar price surges and drops in long-term rates, Greenspan said. "The forces driving the boom are clearly global in nature," he said.
When the Fed held its main rate at 1 percent for a year starting in June 2003, the money supply expanded 5 percent, "scarcely the tinder for a housing boom," said the former Fed chairman, who served from 1987 to 2006.
Greenspan added that his 2001 tax-cut support was "contingent" on corresponding spending reductions and that he clarified his comment on variable-rate mortgages in remarks to the Economic Club of New York in March 2004. At that event, he said he meant to suggest that a "narrow segment" of customers might want an alternative to long-term mortgages.
Yun, who joined NAR eight years ago, earns his keep finding supporting data rosy enough for yesterday's NAR news release:
Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.
Lawrence Yun, [left,] NAR chief economist, said the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. "The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming," he said. "Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels."
Started 21 years ago as a sprawling 8.7-square-mile development with 20,000 dwellings and 47,000 people planned between Daniels Parkway and State Road 82, Gateway's history and location give it an edge, even though empty houses and sale signs now dot its suburban streets, said Naples-based real estate consultant Michael Timmerman.
TAMPA, Fla. ---WUSF-TV Channel 9 aired its video report on the CRED 2007 program and posted the video on YouTube. Click the picture to view the program:
For more information about the 2008 CRED seminar course at the University of South Florida, click on the "Community Development" link in our masthead.
MIAMI, Fla. --- Will Lennar---one of the nation's largest corporate home builders---lead Florida---and the rest of the nation---out of the housing collapse before it wrecks the economy? Lennar is dumping land---lots of it---at 40 cents on the dollar.
Late last night Michael Hinman at bizjournals.com/tampabay(Tampa Bay Business Journal) reported that Lennar sold Metro Development Group of Tampa 8,300 home sites---almost 4,000 acres of land in seven Fla. counties. Neither party disclosed the bargain basement terms. And that's not all:
On Monday, Michael Corkery at WSJ.com(Wall Street Journal) reported that Lennar and Morgan Stanley Real Estate formed a joint venture---MSR Holding Co.---to which Lennar then sold more than 11,000 home sites in 32 communities nationwide for $525 million---half of the reported net book value of $1.3 billion.
In Lee Co., the good news is that other parts of the country are worse off.
Rising foreclosures will hit Lee County hard next year with $272 million in lost economic activity, according to a report released Tuesday.
Economics professor Ray Kest at Hodges University co-authored the study report.
"I was shocked," Kest said, when he analyzed state sales tax figures for 2007. Since May, revenues collected have been lower than 2006 levels each month. "Our economy is hurting a lot more than people realize, and it's hurting in all sectors."
Jeannine Cataldi, Kest's co-author, said more economic pain is headed our way.
"Florida itself is going to be hit by this because it was an area that experienced quite a bit more home price appreciation because of investment, speculative buyers etc. during the housing boom and it's going to come down. The losses will be due to declining property values in general from the market falling down, and made even worse by foreclosures coming on the market."
The Florida Association of Realtors' monthly compilation of housing sales released earlier this week had the same news for just about everyone: we're hurting.
But not enough---yet---to dent Fla.'s affordable housing crisis. Can housing prices be too low and too high at the same time?
Isn't that like time-traveling into the past to tell yourself to buy Xerox stock?
Statewide, the median price of existing homes sold in October was down eight percent from October 2006, and 29 percent fewer homes sold. By anyone's measure, that's drastic enough for your average Realtor to ignore completely. What's Britney Spears up to these days?
Yesterday, Florida Housing News Network reported that Lawrence Yun, above right, chief economist for National Association of Realtors, said not to worry:
The vast majority of metropolitan areas showed rising or stable home prices in the third quarter with most experiencing modest gains compared with a year earlier, despite a broad decline in existing-home sales, according to the latest quarterly survey by the National Assn. of REALTORS®.
Some Realtors are genetically predisposed to see the bright side. Island Vacation Properties' Barry Gould told Bradenton.com that deflating condo prices are a good sign those darned investors are abandoning the market. Never mind those darned in-laws moving into the spare bedroom.
Paul Owers at Sun-Sentinel.com reports that the median price for existing condos in Palm Beach County---Palm Beach---has dropped to $158,900. At this rate there's a four-year supply of condos on the market now. Surely Rush Limbaugh, Donald Trump and Ann Coulter are feeling the pinch.
Pallavi Gogoi at BusinessWeek (via msnbc.com) reports that futures traders are betting home prices will fall another 20 percent next year in high-profile markets like Miami and San Francisco.
Futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show that traders expect double-digit declines in nine out of the 10 biggest housing markets in the U. S. The only exception is Chicago, where prices are still expected to fall by 5.6% over the next year.
U.S. home prices fell 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the sharpest drop since Standard & Poor's began its nationwide housing index in 1987 and another sign that the housing slump is far from over
The vast majority of metropolitan areas showed rising or stable home prices in the third quarter with most experiencing modest gains compared with a year earlier, despite a broad decline in existing-home sales, according to the latest quarterly survey by the National Assn. of REALTORS®.
Here's what really hurts:
Tampa and Miami led the index with the lowest year-over-year declines at 11.1 percent and 10 percent, respectively. It also showed drops in San Diego of 9.6 percent; Detroit, 9.6 percent; Las Vegas, 9 percent; Phoenix, 8.8 percent; and Los Angeles, 7 percent.
MIAMI, Fla. --- Miami city commisher Mark Sarnoff, left, has a plan to save Miami's wheezing condo market (and a healthy portion of the local economy) while opening up big new markets for affordable housing---all at the same time.
The city, Sarnoff says, should invest in cheap developer-distressed condos as soon as the discounts get desperate enough.
...Sarnoff says the best thing for government to do is just what any savvy shopper would: buy, buy, buy.
The commissioner says if prices dip as low as $175 per square foot, government should purchase condo units and partially subsidize them for teachers, police officers and the like.
Sarnoff says a wide range of condo units are currently available in the $225 to $250 per square foot range, and he expects prices to drop in coming months.
MINNEOLA, Fla. ---Robert Sargent at orlandosentinel.com reports that the City of Minneoloa voted 3-2 to annex property planned for development of 700 new homes, including handicap-accessible town homes and affordable homes.
Harb Brothers Inc. promised a new fire truck and a free public services site at Minneola Ridge---the site is north of Florida's Turnpike---in exchange for annexation.
Council member Ed Earl, left, complained the City didn't wring enough from Harb Bros.---under county rules, Harb would have to waste an extra year gaining approvals.
Council member Sue Cordova, [above right,] said Minneola Ridge will bring a variety of housing to Minneola including some that the city does not have.
"The town houses are handicapped accessible, and one section will be for seniors only," Cordova said. "It brings some affordable housing in -- we don't have much affordable housing right now."
MIRAMAR, Fla. --- Miramar means to be the first Florida municipality to claim one of this year's CWHIP grants.
Georgia East at Sun-Sentinel.com reports that Miramar hopes a $5 million CWHIP grant (technically a loan) will spur development of its 54-acre Town Center campus of 347 condos, 133 town houses, an 800-seat cultural arts center, library and stores surrounding Miramar City Hall.
Three years ago, Miramar opened its fabulous new city hall (left) and announced plans to develop a new Town Center to keep it company. Then the housing market collapsed.
Gus Zambrano, the city's director ofEconomic Development and Revitalization told East 50 'workforce' condos were added to the project to qualify for CWHIP funds.
Developer Rock-Kim Miramar LLC is building the condos at a luxury-grade cost of $350,000-$400,000 each. The CWHIP grant would reduce unit prices by about $125,000 per unit, according to city staff.
"...the market has slowed down significantly," Zambrano said, and the complex is feeling the pinch. "Everybody wants the Town Center to be successful, which means all the pieces have to be successful," Zambrano said. "This would be sort of a catalyst."
Zambrano, whose dept. administers CDBG and SHIP funding, said Miramar plans to contribute about $1.25 million to the project from county funding and other grant sources.
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. --- West Palm Beach is looking for a LIHTC developer who will partner in the redevelopment of the 67-year old Dunbar Village public housing project.
The city wants to demolish the entire project, and that means displacement and relocation for more than 300 residents who call the crime-ridden, dilapidated community home.
In August, housing officials were cheered when they announced plans to seek federal help in demolishing the complex, relocating residents and replacing the buildings with a mixed-use community of housing, shops and retail stores. Residents could be eligible for Section 8 rental vouchers from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Since then, those plans have been shelved, but officials still are looking at tax credits and private financing to pay for the project. Already in the works are plans to demolish 13 Dunbar buildings that have recently been vacated.
Enterprise Community Partners presents an online discussion Wed. Dec. 12, 2007 at 2 p.m. ET. Featured speakers: Patricia Magnuson, director of supportive housing at Enterprise Community Partners; Erin Healy, senior program manager for the Corporation for Supportive Housing; and Jeff Kositsky, executive director of the Community Housing Partnership, which runs a successful supportive housing employment program in San Francisco. Click for more information.
video news
NEW YORK --- (Fri. Dec. 14, 2007) RealNews.com interviews Doug Henwood, editor of Left Business Review, on the subprime disaster...
NEW YORK, N.Y. --- 
YER's link doesn't work, but I found a 
Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.
MIAMI, Fla. --- Miami city commisher 
MINNEOLA, Fla. --- 
Harb Brothers Inc. promised a new fire truck and a free public services site at Minneola Ridge---the site is north of Florida's Turnpike---in exchange for annexation.
MIRAMAR, Fla. --- Miramar means to be the first Florida municipality to claim one of this year's CWHIP grants
